- reproduction of initial results
- robustness checks
- systematization of files and folders?
24 05 2020
What is the relevance of the law and the current state of democracy for susceptibility to democracy backsliding in the face of the COVID-19?
| Group of variables | Variables | Time range |
|---|---|---|
| Pandemic data | Pandemic Democratic Violations Index (pandem), Pandemic Democratic Violations Disinformation Index (pandem_dis), Pandemic Backsliding Index (panback) | 03.2020 - 07.2020 |
| Democratization data | Rule of law index (rule), Electoral democracy index (polyarchy), Education level index (education), Politico-geographic regions (region_geo) | 2019 |
| Economic & Demographic data | Gini Index (gini), GDP pc (gdp_pc), Trade GDP (trade_gdp), Inflation rate (inflation), Oil sale (oil), Minerals sale (mineral),Population Density (density), Income group (income_group) | mostly 2019 |
| Fractionalization data | Ethnic (ethnic_frac), Linguistic (ling_frac) and Religious fractionalization (relig_frac) | 2002 |
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) (all variables) | (2) (all variables, excluding polyarchy) | (3) (all variables, excluding rule) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | pandem_dis | panback | pandem | pandem_dis | panback | pandem | pandem_dis | |
| rule | 0.067 | 0.033 | 0.027 | 0.119** | -0.105* | -0.097* | - | - | - |
| polyarchy | 0.091 | -0.239** | -0.216** | - | - | - | 0.145** | -0.212*** | -0.194*** |
| education | -0.008 | -0.0003 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.005 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.001 | -0.003 |
| ethnic_frac | 0.057 | -0.0003 | 0.013 | 0.046 | 0.029 | 0.040 | 0.066 | 0.004 | 0.017 |
| ling_frac | 0.017 | 0.024 | -0.006 | 0.026 | 0.0003 | -0.027 | 0.015 | 0.022 | -0.007 |
| relig_frac | 0.022 | -0.015 | -0.006 | 0.019 | -0.007 | 0.002 | 0.024 | -0.013 | -0.005 |
| gdp_pc_log | 0.010 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.004 | 0.037 | 0.035 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| gini_log | 0.047 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.041 | 0.090 | 0.089 | 0.046 | 0.074 | 0.075 |
| inflation | -0.0002 | 0.00000 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0002 | -0.0002 | -0.00003 | -0.0002 |
| trade_gdp_log | -0.045* | -0.068** | -0.068*** | -0.043* | -0.072** | -0.071*** | -0.044* | -0.067** | -0.067*** |
| oil | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| mineral | 0.004 | 0.006** | 0.006** | 0.004 | 0.006* | 0.006* | 0.003 | 0.006** | 0.006** |
| density_log | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| region_geo FE | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| income_group FE | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| Constant | -0.136 | 0.068 | 0.047 | -0.066 | -0.114 | -0.118 | -0.170 | 0.051 | 0.033 |
| Observations | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.218 | 0.318 | 0.313 | 0.216 | 0.283 | 0.281 | 0.218 | 0.323 | 0.318 |
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) (all variables) | (2) (all variables, excluding polyarchy) | (3) (all variables, excluding rule) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | pandem_dis | panback | pandem | pandem_dis | panback | pandem | pandem_dis | |
| rule | 0.019 | 0.020 | -0.008 | 0.053 | -0.148*** | -0.152*** | - | - | - |
| polyarchy | 0.055 | -0.272*** | -0.233*** | - | - | - | 0.069 | -0.257*** | -0.239*** |
| education | -0.003 | 0.001 | 0.0005 | -0.003 | 0.002 | 0.001 | -0.003 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| ethnic_frac | 0.029 | -0.013 | 0.009 | 0.028 | -0.008 | 0.014 | 0.030 | -0.012 | 0.009 |
| ling_frac | 0.034 | 0.035 | 0.008 | 0.032 | 0.044 | 0.015 | 0.035 | 0.036 | 0.007 |
| relig_frac | -0.029 | -0.044 | -0.030 | -0.026 | -0.060 | -0.044 | -0.029 | -0.044 | -0.030 |
| gdp_pc_log | -0.014 | -0.002 | -0.001 | -0.014 | -0.005 | -0.003 | -0.013 | -0.0004 | -0.001 |
| gini_log | 0.056 | 0.099* | 0.094* | 0.054 | 0.109* | 0.102* | 0.056 | 0.099* | 0.094* |
| inflation | -0.0003 | -0.0001 | -0.0003 | -0.0003 | -0.0003 | -0.0004 | -0.0003 | -0.0001 | -0.0003 |
| trade_gdp_log | -0.019 | -0.039* | -0.039* | -0.019 | -0.037 | -0.038* | -0.019 | -0.039* | -0.039* |
| oil | 0.001 | -0.0001 | -0.0002 | 0.0002 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.0005 | -0.0002 | -0.0002 |
| mineral | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| density_log | 0.015* | 0.018** | 0.014* | 0.014* | 0.023** | 0.018** | 0.015* | 0.018** | 0.013* |
| region_geo FE | no | no | no | no | no | no | no | no | no |
| income_group FE | no | no | no | no | no | no | no | no | no |
| Constant | 0.019 | 0.055 | 0.065 | 0.037 | -0.035 | -0.012 | 0.008 | 0.043 | 0.070 |
| Observations | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.057 | 0.276 | 0.276 | 0.059 | 0.202 | 0.215 | 0.063 | 0.281 | 0.282 |
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) (all variables) | (2) (all variables, excluding polyarchy) | (3) (all variables, excluding rule) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.539*** | -0.021 | 0.734*** | -0.149** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.506*** | - | -0.676*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.702*** | -0.216** | - | - | 0.977*** | -0.233*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.696*** | - | - | - | -0.965*** | - | |||
| cases_ratio | 0.00000 | -0.00000 | 0.00000 | -0.00000 | -0.00000 | -0.00000 | |||
| education_log | -0.020 | -0.026 | -0.026 | -0.047 | -0.034 | -0.024 | |||
| ethnic_frac | -0.051 | -0.001 | -0.059 | 0.032 | 0.009 | -0.004 | |||
| ling_frac | 0.027 | 0.019 | 0.044 | -0.005 | 0.029 | 0.021 | |||
| relig_frac | -0.006 | -0.030 | 0.008 | -0.021 | 0.001 | -0.031 | |||
| gdp_pc_log | 0.024 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 0.031 | 0.028 | 0.013 | |||
| gini_log | 0.067 | 0.141 | 0.060 | 0.165* | 0.091 | 0.140 | |||
| inflation | 0.0005* | 0.001* | 0.001** | 0.001 | 0.0001 | 0.001* | |||
| trade_gdp_log | 0.014 | -0.003 | 0.026 | -0.005 | 0.005 | -0.003 | |||
| oil | -0.001 | -0.004* | -0.001 | -0.003 | -0.001 | -0.004* | |||
| mineral | -0.0003 | 0.002 | -0.0001 | 0.002 | -0.0004 | 0.002 | |||
| density_log | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.003 | 0.008 | |||
| region_geo FE | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
| income_group FE | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | |||
| Constant | -0.650* | -0.366 | -0.563 | -0.608 | -0.693* | -0.349 | |||
| Observations | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.335 | 0.275 | 0.286 | 0.252 | 0.281 | 0.281 | |||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) (all variables) | (2) (all variables, excluding polyarchy) | (3) (all variables, excluding rule) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.475*** | -0.064 | 0.734*** | -0.199*** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.459*** | - | -0.708*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.721*** | -0.221*** | - | - | 1.081*** | -0.268*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.726*** | - | - | - | -1.121*** | - | |||
| cases_ratio | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | -0.00000 | 0.00000 | |||
| education_log | -0.009 | 0.001 | -0.016 | -0.0003 | -0.004 | 0.006 | |||
| ethnic_frac | -0.041 | 0.013 | -0.043 | 0.023 | -0.007 | 0.010 | |||
| ling_frac | 0.051 | 0.042 | 0.060 | 0.046 | 0.044 | 0.039 | |||
| relig_frac | -0.054* | -0.099* | -0.035 | -0.110** | -0.073* | -0.100* | |||
| gdp_pc_log | 0.010 | 0.0005 | 0.002 | 0.0005 | 0.012 | -0.005 | |||
| gini_log | 0.079** | 0.113* | 0.086* | 0.116* | 0.082* | 0.113* | |||
| inflation | 0.0004* | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0003 | 0.00003 | 0.001 | |||
| trade_gdp_log | -0.004 | -0.004 | 0.007 | -0.003 | -0.011 | -0.005 | |||
| oil | -0.001** | -0.003 | -0.002 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.003 | |||
| mineral | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |||
| density_log | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.006 | |||
| region_geo FE | no | no | no | no | no | no | |||
| income_group FE | no | no | no | no | no | no | |||
| Constant | -0.432*** | -0.016 | -0.355* | -0.084 | -0.422** | 0.019 | |||
| Observations | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.336 | 0.252 | 0.278 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.253 | |||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.538*** | -0.042 | 0.769*** | -0.175*** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.510*** | - | -0.724*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.728*** | -0.220** | - | - | 1.050*** | -0.256*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.723*** | - | - | - | -1.059*** | - | |||
| Control variables: | cases_ratio, education_log, fractionalization, gdp_pc_log, inflation, trade_gdp_log, oil, mineral, density_log, region_geo | ||||||||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.491*** | -0.060 | 0.744*** | -0.206*** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.474*** | - | -0.719*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.726*** | -0.237*** | - | - | 1.108*** | -0.281*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.737*** | - | - | - | -1.158*** | - | |||
| Control variables: | cases_ratio, education_log, fractionalization, gdp_pc_log, inflation, trade_gdp_log, oil, mineral, density_log | ||||||||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.575*** | -0.006 | 0.773*** | -0.158** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.535*** | - | -0.719*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.702*** | -0.254*** | - | - | 1.011*** | -0.259*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.717*** | - | - | - | -1.025*** | - | |||
| Control variables: | cases_ratio, ethnic_frac, ling_frac, relig_frac, gdp_pc_log, inflation, trade_gdp_log, oil, mineral, density_log, region_geo, income_categories | ||||||||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
| OLS models: | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |||||||
| panback | pandem | panback | pandem | panback | pandem | ||||
| rule | 0.478*** | -0.061 | 0.751*** | -0.198*** | - | - | |||
| rule2 | -0.457*** | - | -0.719*** | - | - | - | |||
| polyarchy | 0.752*** | -0.224*** | - | - | 1.110*** | -0.270*** | |||
| polyarchy2 | -0.762*** | - | - | - | -1.151*** | - | |||
| Control variables: | cases_ratio, ethnic_frac, ling_frac, relig_frac, gdp_pc_log, inflation, trade_gdp_log, oil, mineral, density_log | ||||||||
| Note: | *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 | ||||||||
Influence of law and state of democracy is exceptionally strong. The stronger the rule of law and the higher the level of democracy, the lower is the risk of democracy backsliding in the face of global pandemic.
Our study provides other variables that are worth further investigation such as: GDP per capita, population density, trade as a share of GDP, economic inequality, mineral rents as a share of GDP and linguistic fractionalization.
The inclusion of categorical variables (income group and politico-geographic regions) in the models shows that these variables are relevant.
The systematic and advanced empirical analysis may be useful for developing data-based recommendations for public policies and legal systems to create settings conductive to a stable democracy.